What is climate change and how is it related to human activity?
Climate change is the long-term alteration of Earth's climate. It can span from decades to millions of years and can lead to changes in the average of various climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation volume. In some cases, this average remains the same, but the distribution of phenomena changes. For example, the same amount of rainfall, instead of being evenly distributed over time, may fall in a concentrated manner within a short period through violent outbursts, with drought prevailing for the rest of the time.
Today, the term “climate change” is usually associated with the concept of “global warming”, as the observed change is clearly towards warmer temperatures. The rate at which the average temperature is increasing is indeed unprecedented.
According to most scientists, the roots of the phenomenon are largely attributed to human activity, which generates greenhouse gases on a massive scale, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), trapping heat and intensifying global warming. The greatest problem is that at a certain point, the phenomenon will become self-sustaining. This means that we won't be able to stop it even if we completely cease emitting carbon dioxide the very next moment (1,2,3).
Diagram 1. After the Industrial Revolution, there has been a sharp surge in the levels of carbon dioxide concentration within Earth's atmosphere (4).
Diagram 2. Average surface temperature of Earth from 1850 to present, compared to data on CO2 concentration in parts per million (1,5).
Scientific Research by the Economic Lyceum of Mitsis Commercial School.
At first, we requested access to the electronic databases of the Cyprus Meteorological Service, which were then subjected to mathematical analysis. It was found that in the village of Prodromos, the maximum temperature last December was 17.1 °C, which was 8.8 °C higher than normal (6). Comparable conditions prevailed for the months of January and February, although not as extreme (7,8). Expanding the investigation to the broader Cyprus area, an increase in the average maximum temperature of December by 4.1 °C was observed within just eight years (9).
Diagram 3. The average maximum temperature recorded in Cyprus for the month of December for the years from 2014 to 2022.
A similar situation was observed regarding snowfall in the region. In Troodos Square, between 2022 and 2023, we saw a reduction in snowfall of up to 91% for the month of January and 36.5% for February. Furthermore, there was almost no snowfall in December of both last year and this year (10).
The historic Berengaria Hotel in Prodromos, as a witness to climate change, captured in a photograph taken by our team using a drone, February '22 and '23.
The increase in temperature and its consequent impacts - naturally - extend beyond the winter months. In August 2023, at the Prodromos meteorological station, the recorded extreme minimum temperature exceeded normal by 11.4 °C, marking the highest daily minimum temperature ever recorded at this station since its establishment (11). Furthermore, it is the first instance where students from the villages of Lemithou and Prodromos recall needing air conditioning to cope with the summer heat.
As temperatures rise, rainfall decreases. In the first three decades of the 20th century, Cyprus experienced an average annual rainfall of 559 mm (3). However, the average for the decade 2013-2023 has declined to 466.6 mm, nearly 20% lower than at the beginning of the century (12).
Presentation by our School Team on Meteorological Phenomena and Climate Change in Troodos, (10th Pan-Cyprian Conference on Positive Sciences, Paphos 2023).
Climate Change and the Rise of Major Wildfires. A presentation from the Cyprus Forestry College
Representing the Cyprus Forestry College, Mr. Andreas Kyprianou provided insight into wildfire issues and fire protection measures, addressing inquiries from the audience. He highlighted that the vast majority of wildfires stem from human activities, and their frequency and intensity have escalated due to climate change.
In 2023, wildfires ravaged 21,26 km2 of countryside, causing total damages estimated at €9.5 million. The surge in wildfires, particularly during November and December, can be largely attributed to adverse weather conditions, including prolonged drought, sparse rainfall, post-harvest field burning, and other ignition sources (13).
The summer of '23 was remarkable for both the prolonged duration and the intensity of high temperatures. For 16 consecutive days in July, temperatures inland in Cyprus soared above 40°C - a record-breaking event not witnessed since 1983 (15). In light of this, it's no coincidence that wildfires spread across areas between Troodos and Limassol during the same period or shortly thereafter (16,17).
Climate Change and Biodiversity.
As is known, even the smallest decline in our environment has a direct effect on the populations of butterflies and bees. In a metaphorical sense, these are like the canaries once used by coal miners to gauge air safety in the mines. Monitoring their populations serves as a crucial method for assessing environmental health. Moreover, it assists policymakers in the EU in shaping their environmental strategies.
Our school is actively engaged in two programs aimed at documenting and preserving butterfly and bee species in our region, in partnership with the Technological University of Cyprus and the University of Cyprus. Every 15 days, we meticulously record the climatic conditions and conduct population surveys of butterflies using the "transect" method. These findings are then uploaded to a shared European database (18), in collaboration with researcher Dr. Ellie Tzirkalli.
After the determination of weather parameters, we proceed with the population count. Using nets, we capture several butterflies, photograph them, and then release them back into their natural habitat.
When it comes to the bee species in our region, they are vital pollinators, crucial for agricultural production. Acknowledging their significance, we've not only been documenting their populations, but also pioneering the establishment of both above-ground and underground solitary bee protection hotels in collaboration with Dr. Andri Varnava and Dr. Konstantinos Tsioli.
Public Opinion on Climate Change and Its Consequences: A Survey Approach
In an online survey (19) conducted by graduating students of our Economic Lyceum, involving a sample of over 100 respondents, the concerns of the public regarding the course of this phenomenon in the Troodos mountain were highlighted. A significant 86% of respondents agreed that winters in Cyprus no longer resemble those of the past. Most expressed concerns about the heightened risk of wildfires compared to previous years, as well as anticipated negative impacts on the local ski resort and agricultural sector. Furthermore, there was consensus on the human role in driving climate change, with suggested actions including stricter environmental regulations, promotion of renewable energy sources, and enhanced public awareness (refer to the appendix for diagrams).
What are the available options?
Dealing with the climate crisis demands a holistic and interdisciplinary approach, along with action on various levels. Some proposals for addressing the climate crisis include:
- Decrease greenhouse gas emissions.
- Promote public transportation, electrification, and cycling infrastructure.
- Adapt infrastructure to climate change.
- Foster sustainability in agriculture and industry.
- Strengthen international cooperation.
- Education and Public Awareness.
It is important to focus on informing and raising awareness among the public, as citizen involvement and awareness are vital for driving change. In conclusion, tackling the climate crisis is a challenge that demands cooperation, commitment, and action across all sectors of society. Through the collective effort and determination of everyone involved, we can forge a more sustainable and compassionate future for generations to come.
Appendix
References
1. Natural Phenomena and their Scientific Interpretation, Christos Doudoulakis, Oselotos Publications.
2. https://www.science.org/content/article/scienceshot-volcano-co2-emissions-no-match-human-activity
3. Meteorological Essentials, Cyprus Meteorological Service, 2011.
4. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
The gray line represents the concentration of CO2. The blue diagrams indicate years with a global average temperature lower than the 20th-century average, while the red ones represent years with temperatures higher than that average.
6. Agricultural Meteorological Bulletin, January 2024.
7. Agricultural Meteorological Bulletin, February 2024.
8. Agricultural Meteorological Bulletin, March 2024.
9. Monthly Average Temperature 2013-2022. The processing was conducted based on data extracted from the database of the Cyprus Meteorological Service.
10. Cyprus Meteorological Service, INSTANTANEOUS SNOW LEVEL (cm) - AVERAGE DAILY VALUES, STATION: 1270-7861 TROODOS SQUARE (AWS).
11. Agricultural Meteorological Bulletin, September 2023.
12. Monthly Area Average Precipitation 2023-2023. The processing was carried out using data sourced from the Cyprus Meteorological Service database.
13. Wildfires Cause €9.5M in Damages, 21.26 Sq. Km of Countryside Burned in 2023, CNA,20/02/24.
14. Image captured during field research in Troodos by one of our students following the celebrations of October 28, 2023. On weekends or during three-day breaks, Troodos sees an influx of hundreds of visitors who illegally light fires for cooking or warmth, often while consuming alcohol.
15. https://www.kitasweather.com/news/genika/apotimisi-tou-idrologikou-etous-2022-2023/
16. Community President of Apesia: it’s a true war out there, Fileleftheros, 04/08/23
17. Authorities Investigate Alasa Fire: Vigilance Against Rekindling, Reporter, 06/08/23
18. https://butterfly-monitoring.net/ (European Butterfly Monitoring Scheme - eBMS)
19. Corresponding Link: https://forms.gle/fYmKMUajLtdxNFuC6
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